Saturday, April 12, 2014

Having a venerable name can be a key to upward mobility

Having a venerable name can be a key to upward mobility | WashingtonExaminer.com



Here's one school of thought: America used to be a land with great upward social mobility, but isn’t any more.
Here's another: America never was a land with great upward social mobility.
Which do you believe? Keep in mind that your answer will have significant implications for public policy.
Most politicians, of both the Right and the Left, favor the first statement. Conservatives say big government is stifling people's chances to move upward. Barack Obama says growing inequality of wealth is holding people down.
But Gregory Clark, a British-born economist at the University of California, Davis, says the politicians have it wrong. The second statement is correct, he argues in his new bookThe Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility.
The problem with previous studies of social mobility, Clark says, is that they measure differences in income, occupation or status across only one or two generations. They found considerable differences between parents and children, grandparents and grandchildren — something that looks almost like random flux.
Clark casts his net wider. He looks at mobility not across one or two generations, but across many. And he shows by focusing on surnames — last names — how families overrepresented in elite institutions remain that way, though to diminishing degrees, not just for a few generations but over centuries.
Some surname data goes back a long way. In medieval England, people with Norman surnames (from the 1066 conquest) and surnames based on place names appear in disproportionate numbers as students at Oxford and Cambridge from 1170, as members of Parliament from 1259, and in upper class probate records from 1380.
Regression to the mean — the fact that very tall people tend to have somewhat less tall children — reduces that overrepresentation over time. But through the industrial revolution, two world wars and the institution of the welfare state, the overrepresentation continues. Similarly, those from underperforming families, like England’s travelers or gypsies, remain underrepresented.
Clark finds the same phenomenon in contemporary Sweden, with its generously redistributive welfare state; in Japan, where those with samurai names continue to overachieve; in class-bound Chile; and, even more so, in caste-bound India.
Clark’s analysis touches a tender spot in American debate, for the implication is that genetics — inherited intelligence — tends to determine social outcomes. He doesn’t quite say so, but he rules out other explanations.
Many Americans resist that explanation, out of concern that extremists could use group differences in test scores as justification for racial discrimination. But ordinary Americans understand that averages are only averages, and that group discrimination is irrational.
And when one shifts focus to personal experience, Clark’s findings make sense. Consider your own extended family or others with which you are familiar.
There’s likely a range of physical differences and intellectual interests even between siblings and parents and children. But there are also patterns and resemblances, as you look back and forward a few generations.
And the differences between extended families will tend to be perpetuated by what social scientists call assortative mating — the tendency, perhaps more pronounced lately, of people to marry people with similar characteristics.
So is there anything to the notion of America as, once, a land of upward mobility? Yes. As Clark notes, immigrant groups have risen rapidly from restrictions in countries of origin to success in America.
The Jews from Eastern European who arrived in the Ellis Island years (1892-1914) are a spectacular example, and there are others. The group most disproportionately producing American physicians today, Clark reveals, are Egyptian Coptic Christians.
And statistical predictability isn’t individual destiny. “Whatever success you do attain will still be achieved only through struggle, effort and initiative.”
Children from unprivileged households do sometimes achieve great success in this country, as in modern Sweden and even medieval England. The 44th president, like the 16th, is proof of that. Upward mobility is possible, even if not probable.
But readers may still be uncomfortable with the likelihood that, in Clark’s words, “a completely meritocratic society would most likely be one with limited social mobility.”
What to do about this? Clark recommends Scandinavian-style economic redistribution. But that may not work well in our more heterogeneous society.
Another approach is to affirm the dignity of honest work and modest success — to remember that, as George Eliot wrote, "The growing good of the world is partly dependent on unhistoric acts.” A society gains strength not just from its elites but from the cumulative achievements of mostly ordinary individuals.

Debunking the Myth of Social Mobility by means of surnames


The Truth About Social Mobility based on tracking family names across generations





Many people assume that it is much easier to move between social classes today than in the past. But new research by economist Gregory Clark, based on tracking family names across generations, reveals that mobility rates are lower than conventionally estimated, and that inherited advantage remains a deeply entrenched force.

"The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility" by Gregory Clark



The Son Also Rises:
Surnames and the History of Social Mobility
Gregory Clark
With Neil Cummins, Yu Hao and Daniel Diaz Vidal


Hardcover | 2014 | $29.95 / £19.95 | ISBN: 9780691162546
384 pp. | 6 x 9 | 15 halftones. 111 line illus. 50 tables. 7 maps. | Shopping Cart

eBook | ISBN: 9781400851096 |
A Social Science Bites Q&A with author Gregory Clark
Gregory Clark
(Photo Credit: ©Paul Estabrook)
Author Gregory Clark

How much of our fate is tied to the status of our parents and grandparents? How much does this influence our children? More than we wish to believe. While it has been argued that rigid class structures have eroded in favor of greater social equality, The Son Also Rises proves that movement on the social ladder has changed little over eight centuries. Using a novel technique--tracking family names over generations to measure social mobility across countries and periods--renowned economic historian Gregory Clark reveals that mobility rates are lower than conventionally estimated, do not vary across societies, and are resistant to social policies. The good news is that these patterns are driven by strong inheritance of abilities and lineage does not beget unwarranted advantage. The bad news is that much of our fate is predictable from lineage. Clark argues that since a greater part of our place in the world is predetermined, we must avoid creating winner-take-all societies.
Clark examines and compares surnames in such diverse cases as modern Sweden, fourteenth-century England, and Qing Dynasty China. He demonstrates how fate is determined by ancestry and that almost all societies--as different as the modern United States, Communist China, and modern Japan--have similarly low social mobility rates. These figures are impervious to institutions, and it takes hundreds of years for descendants to shake off the advantages and disadvantages of their ancestors. For these reasons, Clark contends that societies should act to limit the disparities in rewards between those of high and low social rank.
Challenging popular assumptions about mobility and revealing the deeply entrenched force of inherited advantage, The Son Also Rises is sure to prompt intense debate for years to come.


TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Preface ix
1 Introduction: Of Ruling Classes and Underclasses: The Laws of Social Mobility 1
PART I Social Mobility by Time and Place
2 Sweden: Mobility Achieved? 19
3 The United States: Land of Opportunity 45
4 Medieval England: Mobility in the Feudal Age 70
5 Modern England: The Deep Roots of the Present 88
6 A Law of Social Mobility 107
7 Nature versus Nurture 126
PART II Testing the Laws of Mobility
8 India: Caste, Endogamy, and Mobility 143
9 China and Taiwan: Mobility after Mao 167
10 Japan and Korea: Social Homogeneity and Mobility 182
11 Chile: Mobility among the Oligarchs 199
12 The Law of Social Mobility and Family Dynamics 212
13 Protestants, Jews, Gypsies, Muslims, and Copts: Exceptions to the Law of Mobility? 228
14 Mobility Anomalies 253
PART III The Good Society
15 Is Mobility Too Low? Mobility versus Inequality 261
16 Escaping Downward Social Mobility 279
Appendix 1: Measuring Social Mobility 287
Appendix 2: Deriving Mobility Rates from Surname Frequencies 296
Appendix 3: Discovering the Status of Your Surname Lineage 301
Data Sources for Figures and Tables 319
References 333
Index 349


Gregory Clark is professor of economics at the University of California, Davis. He is the author of A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton).

Review:

"The Son Also Rises . . . suggests that dramatic social mobility has always been the exception rather than the rule. Clark examines a host of societies over the past seven hundred years and finds that the makeup of a given country's economic élite has remained surprisingly stable."--James Surowiecki, New Yorker

"An epic feat of data crunching and collaborative grind. . . . Mr. Clark has just disrupted our complacent idea of a socially mobile, democratically fluid society."--Trevor Butterworth, Wall Street Journal

"Audacious . . ."--Barbara Kiser, Nature

"[A]n important book, and anybody at all interested in inequality and the kind of society we have should read it."--Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist

"The Son Also Rises. . . . That is the new Greg Clark book and yes it is an event and yes you should buy it."--Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

"Startling. . . . Clark proposes a new way to measure mobility across nations and over time. He tracks the persistence of rare surnames at different points on the socio-economic scale. The information he gathers is absorbing in its own right, quite aside from its implications."--Clive Crook, Bloomberg View

"Clark casts his net wider. He looks at mobility not across one or two generations, but across many. And he shows by focusing on surnames--last names--how families overrepresented in elite institutions remain that way, though to diminishing degrees, not just for a few generations but over centuries."--Michael Barone, Washington Examiner

"Deeply challenging . . ."--Margaret Wente, Globe & Mail

"Who should you marry if you want to win at the game of life? Gregory Clark . . . offers some answers in his fascinating new book, The Son Also Rises."--Eric Kaufmann, Literary Review

"Family names" in The Why Factor on BBC



http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01tg2h0

Last names tell a story. Your last name could determine your career. It could decide how easily you move through society or alternatively how hard it could be to get ahead. Some last names grow longer and longer as they carry a family story from generation to generation. Others stagger under a double barrel as partners perpetuate their own last names through their children and a hyphen. 

So what’s in a last name? A whole lot as Mike Williams discovers in The Why Factor. 

"Given Name" in The Why Factor on BBC


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01t10tf


What’s in a name? Each of us has one and it is a fairly fundamental part of us. But what does the name say about us - and about our parents who, in most cases - chose it for us?

Why do some names go in and out of fashion? And is the freedom to name our children as we wish a fundamental human right? In the first of two programmes on names, we begin with first or given names. The programme is presented by the solidly-named Mike Williams. 

Does a baby's name affect its chances in life?

BBC News - Does a baby's name affect its chances in life?





When parents spend hours poring over baby name books they may imagine that their choice will have a major impact on their child's life. But do names make a difference? Two recent books put this idea under the microscope.
Four baby boys
Choosing a name for a child is complicated. Not only should it sound right with the family name but future nicknames - good and bad - need to be taken into consideration. A name might honour a favourite grandparent, but it will also have a forgotten meaning to be unearthed in books, and dubious modern associations to be checked on Google.
Dalton Conley and his wife Ellen were halfway through this pleasant but painstaking process when their baby girl was born, two months premature.
"We had narrowed down the selections to a bunch of E- names, but we couldn't ultimately decide," says Conley, who lives in New York. "Then we came up with the idea of, 'Let's just constrain the first degree of freedom. Let's just give her the first letter and then she can decide when she's old enough what it stands for.'"
And so, E was born. Now 16, she hasn't yet felt the need to extend her first name. "I think once you're given a name, you get used to it - it's part of you," she says. E's little brother, meanwhile, Yo Xing Heyno Augustus Eisner Alexander Weiser Knuckles, did take up his parents' offer to change his name. He added the Heyno and Knuckles when he was four, and his parents made the changes official.
E, Dalton and Yo Xing Heyno Augustus Eisner Alexander Weiser Knuckles ConleyE Harper Nora, Dalton and Yo Xing Heyno Augustus Eisner Alexander Weiser Knuckles Conley
"I have been called a child abuser online," says Dalton Conley, the author of Parentology: Everything You Wanted to Know about the Science of Raising Children but Were Too Exhausted to Ask. "I don't think I've saddled them with some horrible burden. They like the fact that they have unique names now."


Over the last 70 years, researchers have tried to gauge the effect on an individual of having an unusual name. It is thought that our identity is partly shaped by the way we are treated by other people - a concept psychologists call the "looking-glass self" - and our name has the potential to colour our interactions with society. Early studies found that men with uncommon first names were more likely to drop out of school and be lonely later in life. One study found that psychiatric patients with more unusual names tended to be more disturbed.
But more recent work has presented a mixed picture. Richard Zweigenhaft, a psychologist at Guilford College in the US, pointed out that wealthy, oddly-named Americans are more likely to find themselves in Who's Who. He found no consistent bad effects of having a strange name, but noted that both common and unusual names are sometimes deemed desirable.
Conley, who is a sociologist at New York University, says that children with unusual names may learn impulse control because they may be teased or get used to people asking about their names. "They actually benefit from that experience by learning to control their emotions or their impulses, which is of course a great skill for success."
But for the main part, he says, the effect of a name on its bearer rarely amounts to more than the effect of being raised by parents who would choose such a name.
A similar conclusion is reached by Gregory Clark, the economist behind the book The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility. Although the main focus of his research is family names, Clark has looked at first names too - specifically, the names of 14,449 freshmen students attending the elite University of Oxford between 2008-2013. By contrasting the incidence of first names in the Oxford sample with their incidence among the general population (of the same age), he calculated the probability, relative to average, that a person given a particular name would go to Oxford. (For the purposes of his research he excluded students with non-English or Welsh surnames.)

Names at Oxford University 2008-13

Top ten namesBottom ten names
NameRelative chance of attending OxfordNameRelative chance of attending Oxford
Eleanor
3.69
Stacey
0.08
Peter
3.54
Connor
0.08
Simon
3.33
Bradley
0.07
Anna
3.14
Reece
0.06
Katherine
3.07
Danny
0.04
Elizabeth
3.01
Kayleigh
0.04
Richard
2.90
Jade
0.03
Catherine
2.87
Paige
0.02
John
2.82
Shannon
0.02
Stephen
2.81
Shane
0
Source: Gregory Clark et al. Surnames: A New Source for the History of Social Mobility (in press)
He notes that there are more than three times as many Eleanors at Oxford than we might expect, given the frequency of that first name among girls in the general population, and Peters, Simons and Annas are not far behind. Conversely, there is less than a 30th of the expected number of Jades and an even smaller proportion of Paiges and Shannons. An Eleanor is 100 times more likely to go to Oxford than a Jade.
However, there is no evidence that it's the names causing such a marked discrepancy, rather than other factors they represent, Clark says. Different names are popular among different social classes, and these groups have different opportunities and goals.
"That's something that's emerged in modern England that didn't exist around 1800," he says. When he re-ran his study, but this time looking at students attending Oxford and Cambridge in the early 19th Century, he found the correlation between names and university attendance far less marked. First names simply weren't the social signifiers they are now.
What's happened since then is a move towards unusual, even unique, names. Before 1800, Clark says, four first names referred to half of all English men. In 2012, according to the Office for National Statistics, the top four names (Harry, Oliver, Jack, Charlie) accounted for just 7% of English baby boys (and the picture was much the same in Wales).
Similarly in the US, in 1950, 5% of US parents chose a name for their child that wasn't in the top 1,000 names. In 2012, that figure was up to 27%.
As late as the 18th Century, it wasn't uncommon for parents to call multiple children the same name - two Johns for different grandfathers, for example. Now parents increasingly look for unique names or spellings of names. As Jean Twenge points out in her book the Narcissism Epidemic, Jasmine now rubs shoulders in naming lists with Jazmine, Jazmyne, Jazzmin, Jazzmine, Jasmina, Jazmyn, Jasmin, and Jasmyn.
As baby names become a matter of choice rather than tradition, they reveal more about the people doing the choosing. An example of this is the growing ease with which one can guess whether a person in the US is black or white. Roland Fryer and Steven Levitt point out that in California in the years running up to 2003, around 40% of black girls were given names that weren't bestowed on a single white girl in the state.
Graph showing the declining uniformity of American names
The implications of this clearer signalling of class and race are striking. Ina study from 2003, called Are Emily And Greg More Employable Than Lakisha and Jamal? Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan sent nearly 5,000 CVs in response to job advertisements in Chicago and Boston newspapers. The CVs were the same, but half were given fake names that sounded like they belonged to white people, like Emily Walsh or Greg Baker, and the other half were given names that sounded African American, like Lakisha Washington or Jamal Jones. The call-back rate from employers was 50% higher on the "white" names then the "black" names. The effects were noted even for federal contractors with "affirmative action" policies, and companies boasting they were "equal opportunities" employers.
The researchers inferred that employers were using first names to discriminate unfairly against black candidates, perhaps at an unconscious level. Those same prejudices might also come into play at the interviewing stage, but a black applicant called Greg Baker, who receives an invitation to an interview, has at least got his foot in the door.
There is also striking evidence of names triggering different outcomes for schoolchildren.
David Figlio, now at Northwestern University, analysed the scores of some 55,000 children in a school district of Florida. Instead of just distinguishing between "white" and "black" names, he codified what aspects of names meant that they were more likely to belong to black children and children from low-income families. This allowed him to create a sliding scale, which went, for example, from Drew to Dwayne to Damarcus to Da'Quan. Figlio found that the further along this scale he went, the worse the school test scores and the less likely the student was to be recommended for the schools' programme for "gifted" students. Strikingly, this held true for brothers within a family, and even - although the sample size was small - for twins. Figlio believes that the fault lies with the expectations of schoolteachers and administrators - at schools with more black teachers, the effects were less marked.
In separate research, Figlio used the Florida school data to show that black boys who are given names more common among girls are more likely to develop behavioural problems when they reach puberty. The problems increase significantly when there are girls in the same year group with the same name.
If names do affect their bearers' chance of success, it may not always be because of the reactions they cause in other people (the "looking-glass self"). Psychologists talk about "implicit egotism", the positive feelings we each have about ourselves. Brett Pelham cites the concept in explaining his finding that individuals called Virginia, Mildred, Jack and Philip proliferate in Virginia, Milwaukee, Jacksonville and Philadelphia - he believes they are drawn to live there. Another intriguing 2007 paper, entitled Moniker Maladies, found that people's fondness for the initials of their names could get in the way of success. Leif Nelson and Joseph Simmons analysed almost a century of baseball strikeouts and found that hitters with the initial K had a higher strike-out rate ("K" denotes a strike-out in baseball). They also found that graduate students with the initials C and D had a slightly lower grade point average than A and B students, and A and B applicants to law school were more likely to go to better colleges.
E Conley certainly has a fondness for her own initial - which in her case is her name.
"It's just cool that people, especially my friends, will never look at the letter E in the same way again," she says. But she doesn't seem to think her unusual name has had a profound influence on her life so far. "It's just an interesting experience - I'm really no different than an Elizabeth."
Her father reflects that although his children haven't been teased - as some bearers of unusual names are - part of the reason might be the open-minded character of their school and neighbourhood. "I wouldn't say that names don't matter at all," he says. "But how they matter depends on the context."

Friday, April 11, 2014

New Project on Anonymity


"I’ve just secured some seed funding for an interesting new project on meanings of medieval anonymity. This will be an exciting venture that takes me beyond administrative texts into literature, sermons and exempla collections, court rolls and more.
The driving question is why is anonymity present in so many medieval textual genres, despite social imperatives for clear and precise identification and intellectual and theological attention to the importance of onomastics as a basis of all knowledge and being. I can’t wait to see where this will lead.
The research will kick off in the UK in June with a pilot project partly funded by the Arts Faculty. Many thanks to them!"

18th Names Society of Southern Africa Congress



The Names Society of Southern Africa (NSA) – a Southern African scholarly and academic society that is committed to the study of names in Africa (particularly Southern Africa) in 
conjunction with the Great Zimbabwe University’s Faculty of Arts is inviting proposals for papers for its next bi-annual international conference. 


The conference will be held in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe from the 23rd – 25th of September 2014 and will run under the theme “The Way we name now: Reflections from the Falls”


Papers in (but not limited to) the 
following categories of onomastic research are welcome: 

 Names in history
 Theoretical onomastics
 Toponyms
 Personal names
 Names in ecology
 Names in religion
 Nicknames
 Names in politics
 Literary onomastics
 Names in sports
 Brand names etc 

Please send abstracts of not more than 200 words (including the author’s name(s); contact 
details; institutional affiliation) by e-mail attachment in a doc or docx format to: 

Conference Registration Fees: 
Early registration (by 31 July 2014): US$180 
Late Registration: US$200 
Early registration (students): US$90 
Late Registration (students): US$100




Thursday, April 10, 2014

What's that Mary, traditional names are dying out?

What's that Mary, traditional names are dying out? - Telegraph



Cecil, Rowland and Willie have fallen so far out of favour that no one wants to use them for their child.

Notable men called Cecil include Cecil Beaton, the English photographer, who died in 1980
Notable men called Cecil include Cecil Beaton, the English photographer, who died in 1980 Photo: ALAMY
They are the names nobody wants.
Although Cecil, Rowland and Willie were once among the most popular names in Britain, they have fallen so far out of favour they have now became “extinct”.
Latest birth records show that not a single person was given any of the three names while girls' names Bertha, Blodwen or Fanny are also extinct.
Research carried out by Ancestry.co.uk studied birth records for 1905 and produced a “top 100”.
They then compared the names to those on the 2012 baby name list from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the most recent data available. The extinct names are those that did not appear on the 2012 lists at all.
The names Gladys, meaning princess, and Muriel, meaning sea-bright, have also disappeared as tastes change.
And although it is said to mean “strong spear” the name Gertrude has not been tough enough to last the test of time and is also on the extinct list, as are the two different spellings of Margery and Marjorie.
On the list of those declared "extinct" is Cecil, once heralded by famous characters including Cecil Beaton, the English photographer, who died in 1980, and Cecil Parker, the actor, who died in 1971.
Well-known Marjories include Marjorie Reynolds, the actress who died in 1997, and Marjorie Wallace, the British journalist, while Gladys Knight, the American singer known as the “Empress of Soul”, is probably the most well-know Gladys alive today.
The analysis also found a number of “endangered” and "at risk" names, which have fallen in popularity, despite being among the top 100 names in 1905.
They include Norman, Horace and Leslie for boys and Doris, Hilda and Edna for girls. Norman Wisdom, the comedian, who died in 2010, would have been horrified.
According to the research, far more girls’ names are disappearing or “at risk” than boys. This is thought to be because many men’s names are passed on from father to son whereas mothers’ names are more likely to be selected as middle names, rather than forenames, for daughters.
The study did find however, that a number of traditional names remain common. Among them are Lily, Hannah and Lydia for girls and Alan, Patrick and Joe for boys.
Miriam Silverman, from Ancestry.co.uk, said: “Of course, no first name can truly become extinct, as it can easily be resurrected, but it’s fascinating to look at the list from 1905 and see which have thrived and which have faded into obscurity.
“We also know that people appreciate a rare or unusual name in their family tree and as more people join the family history revolution we believe that such endangered names will be protected by concerned descendants.”
According to the ONS, the most popular baby names in 2012 – the most recent data available – were Harry and Amelia followed by Oliver and Olivia.
In that year, 7,168 children were named Harry in 2012, while there were 7,061 baby girls named Amelia.

Help! Dorothy, Edna, Fred and Walter are all in danger

Help! Dorothy, Edna, Fred and Walter are all in danger - Telegraph



Some traditional names are at risk while others are still popular

Actress Lucy Liu
Actress Lucy Liu Photo: GETTY IMAGES
‘Extinct’ names (None recorded in latest birth records)
Fanny
Gertrude
Gladys
Margery
Marjorie
Muriel
Cecil
Cecil Rhodes
Rowland
Willie
Bertha
Blodwen
Endangered (have fallen in prevalence by 99% since 1905)
Clifford
Horace
Harold
Leslie
Norman
Doris
Doris Day
Edna
Ethel
Hilda
Marion
Marion Cotillard
Phyllis
At risk names (have fallen in prevalence by 98% since 1905)
Arnold
Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Bernard
Clarence
Cyril
Ernest
Fred
Fred Astaire
Herbert
Percy
Roland
Sydney
Trevor
Walter.
Ann
Dorothy
Eveline
Freda
Gwendoline
Irene
Jane
Jane Fonda
Janet
Jennie
Lilian
Lizzie
Margaret
Margaret Thatcher
Mary
Maud
Mildred
Nellie
Rhoda
Winifred
Booming traditional names
Christopher
Harry
Sam
Samuel
Louis
Evan
Evan Rachel Wood
Michael
Reuben
Benjamin
Matthew
Lewis
Owen
Owen Wilson
Louie
Alexander
Daniel
Isaac
Jacob
Charlie
Oliver
Jack
Jack Whitehall
Amelia
Charlotte
Daisy
Eleanor
Eliza
Eliza Doolittle
Emily
Eva
Grace
Harriet
Isabel
Isabella
Isabella Rossellini
Leah
Lucy